Dara
DemandOwns the demand side. Daily consumption is a variable that moves, not a fixed number.
Tools 3 of 3
get_demand_signal
Customer demand changes not yet reflected in the production schedule.
get_production_schedule
Production schedule and daily consumption rate for one material at one plant.
forecast_demand
Forecast daily consumption for a material at a plant from its withdrawal history, with a prediction interval. Compares the result against the planned rate in master data, which is the figure every cover date in the system is currently divided by. Deterministic: Holt's linear trend over a deseasonalised series, no model. Refuses when the history is too short to say anything.
- Reasoning effort
- medium
- Instructions
- written
- Used in
- 0 runs
M-4471 at KRW1, daily withdrawals
The dashed rule is the planned 9.2 TON a day that every cover date in the system is divided by. The band is drawn from an in-sample error of 17.5%, so treat anything past today as an estimate rather than a plan.
- Daily withdrawn
- 7-day mean
- Forecast
- 90% range
- Planned 9.2 TON/day
TON/day · 28 days observed, 30 forecast
show the numbers as a table
| Date | Forecast TON | Low | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | 10.33 | 10.15 | 10.51 |
| 2026-09-05 | 10.38 | 10.03 | 10.72 |
| 2026-09-06 | 10.37 | 10.01 | 10.73 |
| 2026-09-07 | 10.42 | 9.66 | 11.18 |
| 2026-09-08 | 10.62 | 9.42 | 11.82 |
| 2026-09-09 | 10.65 | 8.98 | 12.32 |
| 2026-09-10 | 10.58 | 8.41 | 12.75 |
| 2026-09-11 | 10.6 | 8.1 | 13.1 |
| 2026-09-12 | 10.61 | 7.93 | 13.3 |
| 2026-09-13 | 10.61 | 7.92 | 13.31 |
| 2026-09-14 | 10.64 | 7.68 | 13.6 |
| 2026-09-15 | 10.66 | 7.46 | 13.86 |
| 2026-09-16 | 10.68 | 7.26 | 14.11 |
| 2026-09-17 | 10.7 | 7.08 | 14.33 |
| 2026-09-18 | 10.72 | 6.91 | 14.54 |
| 2026-09-19 | 10.74 | 6.8 | 14.67 |
| 2026-09-20 | 10.74 | 6.8 | 14.68 |
| 2026-09-21 | 10.76 | 6.64 | 14.89 |
| 2026-09-22 | 10.79 | 6.48 | 15.09 |
| 2026-09-23 | 10.81 | 6.34 | 15.28 |
| 2026-09-24 | 10.83 | 6.2 | 15.46 |
| 2026-09-25 | 10.85 | 6.07 | 15.63 |
| 2026-09-26 | 10.86 | 5.99 | 15.73 |
| 2026-09-27 | 10.86 | 5.99 | 15.74 |
| 2026-09-28 | 10.89 | 5.86 | 15.91 |
| 2026-09-29 | 10.91 | 5.74 | 16.08 |
| 2026-09-30 | 10.93 | 5.62 | 16.24 |
| 2026-10-01 | 10.95 | 5.51 | 16.4 |
| 2026-10-02 | 10.97 | 5.41 | 16.55 |
| 2026-10-03 | 10.99 | 5.34 | 16.64 |
Planned rate against what actually happened
Every cover date in this system divides stock by the planned rate. 5 of 53 material and plant pairs ran at least 5% away from it over the last 28 days, so those cover dates are wrong. Drift compares what was actually withdrawn against the plan; the last column is where the forecast expects it to go next.
| Material | Plant | Planned/day | Last 28d | Drift % | Next 30d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M-4471 | KRW1 | 9.2 | 10.33 | 12.3 | 10.76 |
| M-4471 | SBY1 | 9.6 | 10.61 | 10.5 | 10.74 |
| M-5518 | SBY1 | 12 | 10.85 | -9.6 | 10.61 |
| M-3308 | CKR1 | 565.6 | 599.59 | 6 | 631.35 |
| M-3308 | KRW1 | 635.6 | 669.19 | 5.3 | 690.37 |
| M-5512 | CKR1 | 2.9 | 2.99 | 3.1 | 2.92 |
| M-3320 | CKR1 | 131 | 134.46 | 2.6 | 134.12 |
| M-1124 | KRW1 | 103.1 | 105.48 | 2.3 | 108.65 |
| M-4478 | KRW1 | 11.7 | 11.95 | 2.1 | 13.05 |
| M-5524 | KRW1 | 3.3 | 3.23 | -2.1 | 2.91 |
| M-1172 | SBY1 | 532.8 | 521.64 | -2.1 | 507.56 |
| M-1184 | KRW1 | 699.2 | 686.05 | -1.9 | 703.53 |
| M-5512 | KRW1 | 6.4 | 6.51 | 1.7 | 6.61 |
| M-7710 | CKR1 | 257.6 | 261.98 | 1.7 | 256.8 |
| M-8836 | SBY1 | 45.6 | 46.35 | 1.6 | 47.12 |
| M-2222 | KRW1 | 230.1 | 226.56 | -1.5 | 224.17 |
| M-1130 | CKR1 | 650.8 | 640.73 | -1.5 | 658.3 |
| M-6640 | CKR1 | 22.8 | 23.1 | 1.3 | 24.47 |
| M-7716 | SBY1 | 100.6 | 99.3 | -1.3 | 89.38 |
| M-1118 | CKR1 | 70.4 | 69.52 | -1.3 | 66.2 |
| M-9910 | KRW1 | 32.6 | 32.94 | 1 | 30.56 |
| M-1178 | CKR1 | 877.8 | 886.63 | 1 | 900.14 |
| M-1112 | KRW1 | 63 | 62.44 | -0.9 | 65.15 |
| M-3312 | CKR1 | 694.5 | 700.3 | 0.8 | 734.68 |
| M-9922 | CKR1 | 548.8 | 544.48 | -0.8 | 541.43 |
| M-1148 | SBY1 | 437.9 | 441.5 | 0.8 | 442.09 |
| M-5530 | CKR1 | 7.3 | 7.25 | -0.7 | 6.75 |
| M-1190 | CKR1 | 894 | 888.07 | -0.7 | 930.49 |
| M-1136 | KRW1 | 688.1 | 691.39 | 0.5 | 689.48 |
| M-1142 | KRW1 | 798.3 | 794.21 | -0.5 | 768.7 |
| M-1166 | SBY1 | 589.9 | 586.72 | -0.5 | 571.98 |
| M-1196 | SBY1 | 674 | 670.54 | -0.5 | 699.59 |
| M-7722 | KRW1 | 91.5 | 91.16 | -0.4 | 89.37 |
| M-8842 | SBY1 | 26.2 | 26.3 | 0.4 | 25.93 |
| M-2210 | KRW1 | 350.8 | 349.54 | -0.4 | 354.01 |
| M-2216 | KRW1 | 9.3 | 9.26 | -0.4 | 9.24 |
| M-4472 | SBY1 | 6.9 | 6.92 | 0.3 | 7.32 |
| M-7710 | SBY1 | 262.4 | 263.25 | 0.3 | 276.91 |
| M-8830 | KRW1 | 71 | 71.22 | 0.3 | 67.45 |
| M-2216 | CKR1 | 8.6 | 8.57 | -0.3 | 8.07 |
| M-1154 | SBY1 | 322.3 | 321.33 | -0.3 | 311.26 |
| M-1160 | KRW1 | 664.8 | 663 | -0.3 | 633.96 |
| M-1184 | SBY1 | 237 | 237.82 | 0.3 | 221.39 |
| M-1202 | CKR1 | 279.3 | 280.13 | 0.3 | 273.24 |
| M-1202 | CKR1 | 0 | 280.13 | 0.3 | 273.24 |
| M-6648 | CKR1 | 845.6 | 844.28 | -0.2 | 855.28 |
| M-2228 | KRW1 | 45.7 | 45.63 | -0.2 | 43.48 |
| M-1148 | CKR1 | 442.7 | 443.63 | 0.2 | 427.03 |
| M-9916 | KRW1 | 395.3 | 395.53 | 0.1 | 397.72 |
| M-1105 | KRW1 | 10.7 | 10.71 | 0.1 | 10.16 |
| M-4472 | KRW1 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 0 | 6.25 |
| M-8830 | SBY1 | 75.7 | 75.69 | 0 | 72.76 |
| M-1118 | SBY1 | 527.1 | 526.99 | 0 | 537.01 |